Gold Coast suffered another flogging on the weekend, this time by Melbourne 9.15.69 - 23.21.159, and all over the air, internet, and print media people were taking every opportunity to talk down the Suns and how hopeless they are - especially Rugby convert Karmichael Hunt.

But far from joining in the kicking-whilst-down frenzy, I'm far more surprised at how quickly they are improving. They have played 3 teams who all fancy themselves a chance to snag 4th spot (Carlton, Bulldogs, Dees), so floggings were on the cards from the get-go, and their opponents would have been highly motivated to deliver a flogging as well given the chance at a cheap percentage boost that could deliver them a premium final come round 24. The Suns are a brand-spanking new team, very few of their experienced players have ever played together before, and half their team are experiencing AFL footy for the first time - any other club in this position would more than likely suffer the same results. Add to that the fact that they have had a number of changes to their starting line-up already, using 28 players so far I think, losing their two leaders in Ablett and Brown for the weekend, and you begin to understand that this is a team that hasn't even figured out its own best 18 yet, let alone how to beat hardened finals aspirants.

But the difference between their first and third games I find staggering. Against Carlton the Suns couldn't string two handballs together (sometimes couldn't even string one) and looked hopelessly out-muscled for the entire game. Contrast that with their third game against Melbourne where they pulled off a number of plays that were clean, efficient, and precise enough to cut open the Dees and lead to scores. The very opening play was a great bit of forward pressure and tackling resulting in a spilt ball from Aaron Davey and a Matera snap on goal from 45m. The very next play was a strong centre-bounce ruck contest followed by a slick handball to a running midfielder who delivered a precision kick inside 50 to a hard leading forward that cut apart the Melbourne defense. The conversion wasn't so good, but this kind of slick lead-up play is everything that was missing from their first game. That the final margin was some 90 points doesn't really matter at this point - what matters is that within three games together the Suns have managed to find some consistency and cohesion in their play, eliminated a large percentage of their skill errors, and that most of their good stuff is coming directly from their younger players.



If they continue the rapid development they're on now then by round 10, when they face Geelong after having a week off, they won't be flogged because they were simply played off the park, but rather because of their lack of experience in comparison to their opponents. The Suns average games played for their list is around 50 (against Melbourne the average games played was 35) compared to Collingwood (about 110) and Geelong (about 125) - which is some 3 - 4 seasons difference. You can't just simply write off that kind of discrepancy. It has to count for something.

So, while their results score wise have remained basically the same, they have improved their actual skill, structures, competitiveness, and game plan so much in just three games that, come round 16 when they eventually play my team (Sydney), I'm scared they might be able to cause us some real trouble. You can't judge a team just by results and raw statistics. You have to watch and analyse how they are actually playing - and the Suns are already starting to string together some highly impressive passages of play. So those who are revelling in the floggings now, I suggest you play it cool a bit until AFTER your team has gotten through their game against the Suns, otherwise it could be quite embarrassing.

Another reason why it's silly to write them off this year so quickly is right there on their team list. Ablett, Bock, Brown, Brennan, Harbrow, Harris, Rischitelli - A brownlow, couple of premierships, and plenty of finals. These guys on the park and in form will cause problems for any side, and the emergence of David Swallow, Josh Toy, Charlie Dixon, Harley Bennell, Brandon Matera, and ruckman Zac Smith (who matched it with All-Australian Mark Jamar on the weekend), gives the Gold Coast, after just 3 games, at least 13 players who are "AFL ready". All that's lacking is the cohesion that will come and is coming already. If players like Josh Fraser, Seb Tape, Daniel Gorringe, Trent McKenzie, Sam Iles, Dion Prestia, and Nathan Ablett can get up and show some form then there's no reason that Gold Coast won't be able to field a highly competitive side within the next 4 rounds.

Karmichael Hunt



For some reason people are judging Hunt based on their expectation of him being the best player in the league (maybe because is he paid like one) when the simple truth is that the most that can be expected from him is that he develops into another Tadhg Kennelly or Dean Brogan type player - someone who is already an elite athlete in another sport but adapts themselves into a player who can "fill a role". Harshly judging a player on his first 3 games of AFL football is not only unfair, but stupid as well. Most new players take at least 50 games to start to show any real signs of true ability, and by the end of Hunt's contract he should be close to that count and everyone should be able to make an informed judgement about his success or failure. Just based on his first 3 games though, Hunt seems to be improving at the same rate as all the other first year players in the Gold Coast squad, looking completely out of place against Carlton to being a contributing key defender against Melbourne. Even using the wildly inadequate Dream Team points to gauge his improvement it is clear - against Carlton he scored 18, against the Bulldogs he scored 30, and against Melbourne he scored 35.

Sure, because he was an elite player in Rugby League, is an experienced and well developed athlete, and is being paid the same as some of our best players get paid, more can be expected a lot sooner of Hunt than most other players in a similar position, but even that ignores the fact that the primary reason he was bought (no typo) into the AFL system, and specifically the Suns, was for marketing reasons more than his ability on-field. In terms of that he has apparently already delivered (according to the Suns and the AFL). What more can you ask? He already looks a competent player with massive room for improvement that is still learning the game. We've only seen him play key defender so far while he tries to gain experience as quick as possible. I wonder what he'll be able to achieve with a switch to a wing, or even a forward pocket - instead of trying to match him in a defensive marking contest opposition players and coaches will have to start matching his speed and size.

Jack Watts

Which brings me to poor Jack Watts. The kid had a great chance to put a big game under his belt and instead found himself on the bench as a substitute for three quarters. He's another player in a similar bracket to Karmichael Hunt, where a lot is expected of him but he is failing to deliver. Being a number one draft pick adds even more pressure. But this is another case where I feel criticism is unfair and unwarranted. He is still just 20 years old, and though he's had a few years in the system already, he was drafted as a key forward because of his size and shape. He has, potentially, another ten to thirteen seasons of AFL football to go in his career, another four to five years before his body matures into that of an elite key forward, and another two to three years before this Melbourne squad are ready to be genuine premiership contenders.

The point I'm trying to make is that he has oodles of time on his hands to develop, and that peaking this early would be a bad sign, rather than something good. Those expecting him to break games apart as a large percentage of other number one draft picks have in the last 10 years (Riewoldt, Hodge, Goddard, Cooney, Murphy, Gibbs) this early on in his career are kidding themselves - and aside from not letting him play a full game against Gold Coast I think Dean Bailey and the Melbourne staff have been handling his development pretty well.

I guess the gist of all this is that we shouldn't be so quick to pass final judgement on new and still developing things, from GCS, to Karmichael Hunt, to Jack Watts. Gold Coast WILL win a game this year (possibly even two), and if you think it will never be against your team then you're setting yourself up for a pretty long weekend at some point this year. By 2013 they will be looking at around 10 wins and a potential spot in the finals at the expense of your team. Writing them off after just three games is incredibly silly. Come the 2014 Grand Final the biggest match up could well be Hunt v Watts!

It's just still too early to tell.